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The roller-coaster ride of real estate continues in North Rodney, with no real pattern to sales emerging except that most are still concluded at prices below the current Capital Value of a property and, a significant number are selling below their previous sale price.

 

Nationally, the first signs of a recovery in property values appear to have been short-lived, as values fell back in Auckland and Wellington. None of the provincial centres recorded property values above the same time last year, with values falling between 6.2 percent (Whangarei) and 1.7 per cent (Queenstown Lakes), according to Quotable Value.

 

Recently, London’s Economist magazine suggested New Zealand property prices are 20 per cent overvalued. “No news in that, really - some of us have been saying it for yonks as well,” commented Gareth Morgan of Infometrics who, as far back as 2007 was saying publicly that houses in New Zealand were 30 percent overvalued.

 

The truth is that both either have been, or are right, but perhaps not across the board. Within cities and provincial centres, different suburbs have been affected to varying degrees. An example of this, close to home, is the difference between Omaha and most other suburbs in our area. For the last two years or more there have been more sales transacted in Omaha and at prices far closer than their Capital Values or for prices above their CV, than any other suburb in North Rodney. In Algies Bay last month both sales completed were for prices over 26 percent less than their CV.

 

In general, however, prices today are down on what they were at the peak of the market, in June 2007. This is when the ratio between the average house price compared with the average household income peaked at about 5.7 times. It is, “now back to about 4.5 times,” according to Gareth Morgan, still higher than the 3.3 average prior to 2002.

 

This would suggest that, if prices stay relatively calm over the next few years, we would come back to a “normal” market.

 

As we mentioned earlier, sales successes reported in North Rodney so far this year still resemble a roller-coaster ride.  Residential sales numbers went from 13 in January to 18 in February, up to 30 in March and back down to 24 in April (see graph below which also shows figures for the same period last year, 2010). For the first four months of this year sales numbers are down 23 percent on 2010, however, the graph pattern is very similar.

 

Rural sales are also 23 percent down on the same four months of 2010 although the pattern of sales is quite different (see graph below). Of the ten sales recorded in April only two were for undeveloped sites.

 

With all sales recorded in April, whether rural or residential, a significantly high proportion were for properties that had been on the market for nine to twelve months.

 

Currently, stock is slow in coming to the market as vendors try to hold on for better times. We see that the “better times” are in the medium to long term with little change over the rest of this year.

The latest BNZ - REINZ Market Survey shows that the three main reasons people sell their houses are, they need the money, their relationship has broken down, or they are leaving town. The same survey showed that the main reasons Written Sales fail to go Unconditional are:

 

The necessity to have all paperwork including Permits, Consents, Code of Compliance Certificates, Safe and Sanitary Reports, has never been more important, as the ‘reasons’ above illustrate.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            X/S = Cross Lease

Property Address		Sale Price	Days on Market	Bedrooms	Land Area M2	2007 CV	Last Sale Price	Year
Algies Bay	Gordon Craig Pl	1,430,000	39	4	852	1,950,000	480,000	1994
	Mahurangi East Rd	382,500	98	2	809	520,000	370,000	2009
Leigh	Cumberland St	360,000	175	3	809	395,000	360,000	2007
	Leigh Rd	482,000	73	3	6,407	450,000	312,000	2004
Omaha	Edith Pl	295,000	38	RS	450	350,000	205,000	1996
	Lagoon Way	680,000	129	RS	601	745,000	120,000	1996
	Mangatawhiri Rd	865,000	43	3	783	850,000	757,000	2005
	Te Mana St	950,000	318	3	770	900,000	225,000	2005
Sandspit	Kanuka Rd	1,170,000	346	4	1,361	980,000	510,000	2006
Snells Beach	Brigitte View	369,000	13	3	711	220,000	215,000	2006
	Dalton Rd	625,000	329	3	608	860,000
	Grant St	2,200,000	443	4	2,375	1,670,000	350,000	2004
	James St	575,000	82	4	4,100	570,000	590,000	2007
	Tara Pl	420,000	3	2	830	445,000	372,000	2009
Warkworth	Auckland Rd	580,000	20	4	1,225	600,000	150,000	1998
	Bambro St	422,000	32	2	750	455,000	157,500	1986
	John Andrew Dr	453,000	177	4	612	510,000	N/A
	McKinney Rd	147,391	1460	RS	948	N/A
	McKinney Rd	164,000	281	RS	948	N/A
	Motiti St	140,000	669	RS	642	230,000	230,000	2008
	Old Woodcocks Rd	450,000	84	4	3,585	650,000	450,000	2009
	Rivendell Pl	475,000	134	3	736	565,000	470,000	2004
	Wickens Pl	405,000	87	4	755	410,000	420,000	2009
Whangateau	Leigh Rd	102,000	54	RS	938	185,000	165,000	2004

 

Rural sales for North Rodney - April 2011                                                                                                            

Property Address		Sale Price	Day on Market	Area (Hectares)	Description	2007 CV	Last Sale Price	Year
Mahurangi West	Pukapuka Rd	3,400,000	465	1.9740	5 bedroom 400m2 home	1,575,000	562,000	1999
Matakana	Wright Rd	285,000	680	1.0910	Bare lifestyle	N/A	300,000	2008
Omaha	Omaha Flat Rd	685,000	470	1.0000	3 bedroom 127m2 home	750,000	435,000	2004
Sandspit	Kanuka Rd	1,240,000	333	2.1200	Bed & Breakfast	1,600,000	N/A
Takatu	Takatu Rd	1,075,000	39	8.6800	Bare lifestyle	N/A
Warkworth	Golf Rd	1,030,000	230	2.6090	Bed & Breakfast, superior lifestyle block	1,200,000	175,000	2002
	Kaipara Hills Rd	615,000	110	1.1550	3 bedroom home	624,000	420,000	2007
	Westminster Glen	900,000	154	1.3130	4 bedroom home	825,000	235,000	2003
Wellsford	Wayby Stateion Rd	330,000		1.6600	3 bedroom home	460,000	245,000	2002
Whangateau	Schollum Rd	2,700,000	400	4.7430	Bed & Breakfast Lodge	1,655,000	885,000	2002

 

Disclaimer

N.B. Market statistics based on unconditional sales recorded with REINZ during the prescribed period. In preparing this document we have used our best endeavors to ensure the accuracy of all the information provided. We accept no liability or responsibility for any errors or inaccuracies and recommend that all recipients make their own enquiries to verify any information given.

 

Bogue Real Estate Ltd Licensed (REAA 2008)